Matteo Arnaldi vs Casper RuudMadrid Masters Round of 64

Madrid Masters · ATP · Round of 64
#35ATP
1830ELO
1830Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 24 April 2023
clay
#12ATP
1983ELO
1973Clay ELO
$2.0MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWL
Arnaldi M.
6-3 6-4
Ruud C.
Arnaldi M.
662
Ruud C.
340

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Casper Ruud 6-3 6-4 in the Madrid Masters round of 64 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Casper Ruud came in ranked #12, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32, but Matteo Arnaldi had arrived on a 3-match winning run. Matteo Arnaldi claimed a first win over Casper Ruud in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-04-15BarcelonaQFclayCasper Ruud6-4 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaldi M.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Ruud C.

Ruud C.serving84% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Serve advantage — Ruud C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Arnaldi M.Ruud C.
Serve
54
Return
69

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
54%
Service points won·Even
62%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
63%
66%
Aces / match·Even
5.8
5.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.3
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (194 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
91
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Clear edge
51
75
Deciding sets·Clear edge
86
99
Tiebreaks·Even
99
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.4Clay Elo 1830
Surface ELO
7.6+143 Clay Elo edge
2.4Overall Elo 1830
ELO gap
7.6Overall Elo 1983
5.0
H2H
5.0
8.3
Surface form
7.3
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.3
Minutes 14d
5.5
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
94
97

Arnaldi M.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Ruud C.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
19°CMainly clear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 48%