Alex Michelsen vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliTallahassee CH Round of 32

Tallahassee CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#46ATP
1825ELO
1694Clay ELO
$785kYTD
$4.6MCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 April 2023
clay
#58ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
Michelsen A.
5-7 6-3 6-2
Ugo Carabelli C.
Michelsen A.
5662
Ugo Carabelli C.
7321

Alex Michelsen defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 5-7 6-3 6-2 in the Tallahassee CH round of 32 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Camilo Ugo Carabelli came in leading the head-to-head 1–0. Alex Michelsen claimed a first win over Camilo Ugo Carabelli in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-19Miami MastersR64hardCamilo Ugo Carabelli6-7(3) 7-5 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Michelsen A.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Michelsen A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Michelsen A.Ugo Carabelli C.
Serve
24
Return
28

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
49%
Service points won·Even
64%
60%
Return points won·Even
37%
41%
Break points saved·Even
62%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.0
2.7
Double faults / match·Even
2.3
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
78
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
98
90
Break points won·Clear edge
46
62
Deciding sets·Slight edge
91
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
95
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Extended break: 42 days (−0.7)
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.8Clay Elo 1694
Surface ELO
6.2+46 Clay Elo edge
5.8Overall Elo 1825
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1759
5.0
H2H
5.0
Surface form
5.7
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
7.7
Prev. match
8.0
6.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
70
100

Michelsen A.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 78 games (7d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast