Pavel Kotov vs Mattia BellucciPhoenix CH Qualifying Round 2

Phoenix CH · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round 2
#246ATP
1597ELO
1601Hard ELO
27 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 13 March 2023
hard
#80ATP
1720ELO
1678Hard ELO
$587kYTD
$2.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWLL
Kotov P.
6-4 6-3
Bellucci M.
Kotov P.
662
Bellucci M.
430

Pavel Kotov defeated Mattia Bellucci 6-4 6-3 in the Phoenix CH qualifying round 2 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Mattia Bellucci came in ranked #80, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Pavel Kotov claimed a first win over Mattia Bellucci in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Pavel Kotov closed it out in two sets, 6–4 6–3.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-31MarrakechR32clayMattia Bellucci6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Kotov P.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Bellucci M.

Bellucci M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Kotov P.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Kotov P.Bellucci M.
Serve
0
Return
40

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
63%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.5
6.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.8
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (182 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
59
60
Break points saved·Even
94
96
Break points won·Even
13
10
Deciding sets·Even
82
81
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
76
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1601
Surface ELO
5.3+77 Hard Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 1597
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1720
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.0
Surface form
3.1
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
3.9
Minutes 14d
8.1
0.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
100

Bellucci M.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast