Sebastian Ofner vs Matteo ArnaldiQuimper CH Round of 32

Quimper CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#125ATP
1713ELO
1655Hard ELO
$345kYTD
$3.8MCAREER
30 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 23 January 2023
hard
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Ofner S.
3-6 6-2 6-1
Arnaldi M.
Ofner S.
3662
Arnaldi M.
6211

Sebastian Ofner defeated Matteo Arnaldi 3-6 6-2 6-1 in the Quimper CH round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #34, but Sebastian Ofner had arrived on a 5-match winning run.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Ofner S.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Ofner S.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Ofner S.Arnaldi M.
Serve
23
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
61%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.0
5.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.9
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 194). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
70
78
Break points saved·Even
93
97
Break points won·Slight edge
43
51
Deciding sets·Even
82
86
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
84
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Hard Elo 1655
Surface ELO
5.4+77 Hard Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 1713
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1830
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.8
Surface form
4.5
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
1.8
Minutes 14d
6.7
7.0
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
83
97

Ofner S.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d) · Arnaldi M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast