Jason Kubler vs Sebastian Baez — Australian Open Round of 128

Australian Open · ATP · Round of 128
AUS
Jason Kubler
#468ATP
1685ELO
1635Hard ELO
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWLLW
3 — 0
Sets
Monday, 16 January 2023
hard
Sebastian Baez
ARG
Sebastian Baez
#56ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Kubler J.
6-4 6-4 6-4
Baez S.
Kubler J.
6663
Baez S.
4440

Jason Kubler defeated Sebastian Baez 6-4 6-4 6-4 in the Australian Open round of 128 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Sebastian Baez came in ranked #56, defending last year's round of 64.

Key context

  • Match story: Jason Kubler edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Kubler J.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baez S.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Kubler J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Kubler J.Baez S.
—
Serve
5
—
Return
63

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Kubler J.Baez S.
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
61%
Return points won·Even
37%
40%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.6
2.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (86 vs 197). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Kubler J.Baez S.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
59
87
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
96
Break points won·Dominant
46
86
Deciding sets·Slight edge
79
88
Tiebreaks·Dominant
37
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kubler J.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Baez S.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.2Hard Elo 1635
Surface ELO
5.8+73 Hard Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1685
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1759
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
5.4
Surface form
0.9
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 5
Fatigue & Travel
4.8
Minutes 14d
7.9
4.0
3-set count
7.0
6.0
Prev. match
9.0
6.6
Country comfort
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Kubler J.Baez S.
Freshness·
—
96

Baez S.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 56%
Final
Djokovic N.[4]
Tsitsipas S.[3]
6-37-647-65
Semi-finals
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Khachanov K.[18]
7-626-46-766-3
Djokovic N.[4]
Paul T.
7-56-16-2
Quarter-finals
Khachanov K.[18]
Korda S.[29]
7-656-33-0
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Lehecka J.
6-37-626-4
Djokovic N.[4]
Rublev A.[5]
6-16-26-4
Paul T.
Shelton B.
7-666-35-76-4
R16
Shelton B.
Wolf J.
6-756-26-747-646-2
Khachanov K.[18]
Nishioka Y.[31]
6-06-07-64
Korda S.[29]
Hurkacz H.[10]
3-66-36-21-67-67
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Sinner J.[15]
6-46-43-64-66-3
Lehecka J.
Auger Aliassime F.[6]
4-66-37-627-63
Djokovic N.[4]
De Minaur A.[22]
6-26-16-2
Paul T.
Bautista Agut R.[24]
6-24-66-27-5
Rublev A.[5]
Rune H.[9]
6-33-66-34-67-69
R32
Wolf J.
Mmoh M.
6-46-16-2
De Minaur A.[22]
Bonzi B.
7-606-26-1
Bautista Agut R.[24]
Murray A.
6-16-776-36-4
Djokovic N.[4]
Dimitrov G.[27]
7-676-36-4
Nishioka Y.[31]
Mcdonald M.
7-666-36-2
Khachanov K.[18]
Tiafoe F.[16]
6-36-43-67-69
Hurkacz H.[10]
Shapovalov D.[20]
7-636-41-64-66-3
Korda S.[29]
Medvedev D.[7]
7-676-37-64
Sinner J.[15]
Fucsovics M.
4-64-66-16-26-0
Lehecka J.
Norrie C.[11]
6-786-33-66-16-4
Auger Aliassime F.[6]
Cerundolo F.[28]
6-13-66-16-4
Rublev A.[5]
Evans D.[25]
6-46-26-3
Rune H.[9]
Humbert U.
6-46-27-65
Shelton B.
Popyrin A.
6-37-646-4
Paul T.
Brooksby J.
6-16-46-3
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Griekspoor T.
6-27-656-3
R64
Shapovalov D.[20]
Daniel T.
6-37-637-5
Korda S.[29]
Watanuki Y.
6-27-56-4
Rune H.[9]
Cressy M.
7-56-46-4
Bonzi B.
Carreno Busta P.[14]
4-64-67-656-17-64
De Minaur A.[22]
Mannarino A.
7-634-66-46-1
Mmoh M.
Zverev A.[12]
6-716-46-36-2
Paul T.
Davidovich Fokina A.[30]
6-22-66-746-36-4
Dimitrov G.[27]
Djere L.
6-36-26-0
Murray A.
Kokkinakis T.
4-66-747-656-37-5
Nishioka Y.[31]
Svrcina D.
6-36-46-2
Hurkacz H.[10]
Sonego L.
3-67-632-66-36-3
Mcdonald M.
Nadal R.[1]
6-46-47-5
Khachanov K.[18]
Kubler J.
6-45-76-46-2
Medvedev D.[7]
Millman J.
7-56-26-2
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Hijikata R.
6-36-06-2
Griekspoor T.
Van De Zandschulp B.[32]
6-46-46-4
Fucsovics M.
Harris L.
6-26-35-76-4
Sinner J.[15]
Etcheverry T.
6-36-26-2
Norrie C.[11]
Lestienne C.
6-33-67-626-3
Lehecka J.
Eubanks C.
6-46-43-66-3
Cerundolo F.[28]
Moutet C.
3-66-46-27-5
Rublev A.[5]
Ruusuvuori E.
6-26-46-726-3
Popyrin A.
Fritz T.[8]
6-747-626-46-766-2
Shelton B.
Jarry N.
7-637-637-5
Wolf J.
Schwartzman D.[23]
6-16-46-4
Brooksby J.
Ruud C.[2]
6-37-56-746-2
Auger Aliassime F.[6]
Molcan A.
3-63-66-36-26-2
Humbert U.
Kudla D.
6-26-756-26-4
Tiafoe F.[16]
Shang J.
6-46-46-1
Bautista Agut R.[24]
Holt B.
4-62-66-36-26-2
Djokovic N.[4]
Couacaud E.
6-16-756-26-0
Evans D.[25]
Chardy J.
6-46-46-1
R128
Kubler J.
Baez S.
6-46-46-4
Shang J.
Otte O.
6-26-46-727-5
Millman J.
Huesler M.
6-787-56-726-26-3
Norrie C.[11]
Van Assche L.
7-636-06-3
Lestienne C.
Monteiro T.
6-37-626-3
Ruusuvuori E.
Purcell M.
4-66-36-47-611
Chardy J.
Galan D.
1-67-56-16-4
Djere L.
Bergs Z.
6-41-66-46-1
Zverev A.[12]
Varillas J.
4-66-15-77-636-4
Murray A.
Berrettini M.[13]
6-36-34-66-777-66
Eubanks C.
Kwon S.
6-36-716-34-66-4
Carreno Busta P.[14]
Cachin P.
7-646-17-63
Svrcina D.
Munar J.
6-36-26-2
Wolf J.
Thompson J.
6-33-66-47-5
Paul T.
Struff J.
6-17-666-2
Holt B.
Vukic A.
6-41-66-33-66-3
Fucsovics M.
Coria F.
4-67-52-67-666-2
Sonego L.
Borges N.
7-646-36-766-1
Nadal R.[1]
Draper J.
7-52-66-46-1
Mcdonald M.
Nakashima B.
7-657-611-66-7106-4
Nishioka Y.[31]
Ymer M.
6-46-27-5
Khachanov K.[18]
Zapata Miralles B.
7-636-26-0
Tiafoe F.[16]
Altmaier D.
6-36-36-757-66
Hurkacz H.[10]
Martinez P.
7-616-26-2
Daniel T.
Escobedo E.
7-56-23-66-3
Shapovalov D.[20]
Lajovic D.
6-44-66-46-1
Korda S.[29]
Garin C.
6-41-66-36-2
Watanuki Y.
Rinderknech A.
6-36-36-2
Medvedev D.[7]
Giron M.
6-06-16-2
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Halys Q.
6-36-47-66
Hijikata R.
Hanfmann Y.
4-64-66-37-656-3
Griekspoor T.
Kotov P.
6-37-636-3
Van De Zandschulp B.[32]
Ivashka I.
6-33-67-56-3
Harris L.
Musetti L.[17]
6-46-16-702-67-64
Etcheverry T.
Barrere G.
3-66-36-46-4
Sinner J.[15]
Edmund K.
6-46-06-2
Lehecka J.
Coric B.[21]
6-36-36-3
Cerundolo F.[28]
Pella G.
6-46-46-3
Moutet C.
Wu Y.
6-45-76-24-67-5
Molcan A.
Wawrinka S.
6-736-31-67-626-4
Auger Aliassime F.[6]
Pospisil V.
1-67-647-636-3
Rublev A.[5]
Thiem D.
6-36-46-2
Evans D.[25]
Bagnis F.
6-44-66-46-4
Kudla D.
Safiullin R.
3-67-57-666-3
Humbert U.
Gasquet R.
6-36-46-3
Cressy M.
Ramos A.
7-627-53-66-3
Rune H.[9]
Krajinovic F.
6-26-36-4
Bonzi B.
Bellucci M.
4-66-37-656-4
De Minaur A.[22]
Hsu Y.
6-26-26-3
Dimitrov G.[27]
Karatsev A.
7-637-56-2
Couacaud E.
Dellien H.
6-47-56-0
Djokovic N.[4]
Carballes Baena R.
6-36-46-0
Popyrin A.
Tseng C.
4-67-656-757-646-1
Shelton B.
Zhang Z.
4-66-36-22-67-64
Jarry N.
Kecmanovic M.[26]
6-36-47-63
Schwartzman D.[23]
Krutykh O.
6-46-766-37-65
Kokkinakis T.
Fognini F.
6-16-26-2
Davidovich Fokina A.[30]
Bublik A.
6-06-733-66-46-3
Brooksby J.
Oconnell C.
3-66-26-36-2
Ruud C.[2]
Machac T.
6-37-666-756-3
Fritz T.[8]
Basilashvili N.
6-46-24-67-5
Mmoh M.
Lokoli L.
4-62-67-676-46-2
Mannarino A.
Isner J.
6-757-686-26-2
Bautista Agut R.[24]
Sousa J.
6-36-26-2