Yoshihito Nishioka vs Alexei PopyrinAdelaide 1 Quarter-final

Adelaide 1 · ATP · Quarter-final
#177ATP
1689ELO
1659Hard ELO
$42kYTD
$7.5MCAREER
30 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 2 January 2023
hard
#103ATP
1741ELO
1681Hard ELO
$563kYTD
$9.7MCAREER
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWLWL
Nishioka Y.
7-6 6-7 6-2
Popyrin A.
Nishioka Y.
776862
Popyrin A.
6471021

Yoshihito Nishioka defeated Alexei Popyrin 7-6 6-7 6-2 in the Adelaide 1 quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alexei Popyrin came in ranked #103, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Yoshihito Nishioka claimed a first win over Alexei Popyrin in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR128clayAlexei Popyrin7-5 6-4 1-2 RET

Serve vs return

This season
Nishioka Y.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Popyrin A.

Popyrin A.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Nishioka Y.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Nishioka Y.Popyrin A.
Serve
40
Return
11

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.5
9.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.6
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (142 vs 171). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
84
59
Break points saved·Even
95
99
Break points won·Dominant
59
6
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
75
Tiebreaks·Even
97
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 57 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
4.8Hard Elo 1659
Surface ELO
5.2+21 Hard Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1689
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1741
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.7
Surface form
4.5
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
98

Popyrin A.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast