Madison Keys vs Lucia BronzettiUnited Cup Final

United Cup · WTA · Final
#23WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 2 January 2023
hard
#139WTA
1622ELO
1551Hard ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Keys M.
6-3 6-2
Bronzetti L.
Keys M.
662
Bronzetti L.
320

Madison Keys defeated Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-2 in the United Cup final on hard. The result followed the form book — Madison Keys came in ranked #23, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Madison Keys extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-22MadridR64clayMadison Keys6-4 6-3
2024-12-30AucklandR32hardMadison Keys6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Keys M.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Bronzetti L.

Bronzetti L.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Serve advantage — Keys M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Keys M.Bronzetti L.
36
Serve
12
29
Return
14

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
46%
Service points won·Slight edge
60%
55%
Return points won·Even
44%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.0
1.9
Double faults / match·Even
2.7
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (153 vs 194). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
94
55
Break points saved·Clear edge
96
74
Break points won·Slight edge
90
84
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
60
Tiebreaks·Dominant
96
48

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 54 days (−0.7)
3.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 84 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
9.9+369 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.1Hard Elo 1551
10.0Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1622
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.4
Surface form
4.7
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
84
100

Keys M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d) · Bronzetti L.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast