Holger Rune vs Andrey RublevParis Masters Round of 16

Paris Masters · ATP · Round of 16
#77ATP
1757ELO
1725Hard ELO
$0YTD
$16MCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 31 October 2022
hard
#13ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
Rune H.
6-4 7-5
Rublev A.
Rune H.
672
Rublev A.
450

Holger Rune defeated Andrey Rublev 6-4 7-5 in the Paris Masters round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Andrey Rublev came in ranked #13, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 32. Holger Rune claimed a first win over Andrey Rublev in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-04-10Monte Carlo MastersFclayAndrey Rublev5-7 6-2 7-5
2023-01-16Australian OpenR16hardAndrey Rublev6-3 3-6 6-3 4-6 7-6(9)

Serve vs return

This season
Rune H.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Rublev A.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Rune H.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rune H.Rublev A.
47
Serve
55
58
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
67%
Return points won·Even
36%
38%
Break points saved·Even
65%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.8
7.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
91
89
Break points saved·Even
99
100
Break points won·Clear edge
84
72
Deciding sets·Even
98
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1725
Surface ELO
6.2+124 Hard Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1757
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1902
5.0
H2H
5.0
8.9
Surface form
7.8
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.0
Minutes 14d
8.4
4.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Country comfort
5.8
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
93

Rublev A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
16°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 85%