Juan Pablo Varillas vs Alvaro Guillen MezaGuayaquil CH Round of 16

Guayaquil CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#279ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 31 October 2022
clay
#277ATP
1442ELO
1412Clay ELO
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWLLWLL
Varillas J.
6-1 7-6
Guillen Meza A.
Varillas J.
6772
Guillen Meza A.
1630

Juan Pablo Varillas defeated Alvaro Guillen Meza 6-1 7-6 in the Guayaquil CH round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Alvaro Guillen Meza came in ranked #277, defending last year's round of 32, but Juan Pablo Varillas had been the form player, winning 4 of their last 10 on clay.

Key context

  • Match story: Juan Pablo Varillas came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 7–6.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Varillas J.serving61% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Guillen Meza A.

Guillen Meza A.serving61% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Varillas J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
58%
Return points won·Even
40%
43%
Break points saved·Even
59%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.8
1.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 163). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
55
19
Break points saved·Dominant
80
43
Break points won·Even
43
41
Deciding sets·Dominant
63
36
Tiebreaks·Dominant
72
17

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
4.7+19 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.3Clay Elo 1412
4.6Overall Elo 1440
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1442
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.5
Surface form
1.9
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.9
Minutes 14d
8.5
9.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
62
95

Varillas J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 84 games (7d) · Guillen Meza A.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast