Tommy Paul vs Pablo Carreno BustaParis Masters Round of 16

Paris Masters · ATP · Round of 16
#25ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 31 October 2022
hard
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
34 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Paul T.
6-4 6-4
Carreno Busta P.
Paul T.
662
Carreno Busta P.
440

Tommy Paul defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-4 6-4 in the Paris Masters round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #25, defending last year's round of 32.

Key context

  • Match story: Tommy Paul edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Paul T.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paul T.Carreno Busta P.
71
Serve
21
54
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
64%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Even
63%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.1
3.6
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (199 vs 183). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
93
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Dominant
87
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
98
80
Tiebreaks·Even
96
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.9+137 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Hard Elo 1744
7.1Overall Elo 1949
ELO gap
2.9Overall Elo 1801
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
5.1
Surface form
5.1
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.2
Minutes 14d
5.4
4.0
3-set count
7.0
6.0
Prev. match
8.0
Country comfort
5.6
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
84
89

Paul T.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
16°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 85%