Mattia Bellucci vs Matteo ArnaldiSaint Tropez CH Final

Saint Tropez CH · CHALLENGER · Final
#80ATP
1720ELO
1678Hard ELO
$587kYTD
$2.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 10 October 2022
hard
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Bellucci M.
6-3 6-3
Arnaldi M.
Bellucci M.
662
Arnaldi M.
330

Mattia Bellucci defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6-3 6-3 in the Saint Tropez CH final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #34.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Bellucci M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Bellucci M.

Serve advantage — Bellucci M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bellucci M.Arnaldi M.
0
Serve
23
40
Return
22

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Even
65%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
64%
63%
Aces / match·Even
6.1
5.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
60
78
Break points saved·Even
96
97
Break points won·Dominant
10
51
Deciding sets·Slight edge
81
86
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
85
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1678
Surface ELO
5.3+54 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1720
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1830
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
Surface form
1.1
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.0
Minutes 14d
5.2
3-set count
4.0
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
96

Bellucci M.: 20 days rest · Arnaldi M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast