Alex Molcan vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Hamburg Round of 16

Hamburg · ATP · Round of 16
Alex Molcan
SVK
Alex Molcan
#101ATP
1742ELO
1712Clay ELO
$295kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
28 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 18 July 2022
clay
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP4
Pablo Carreno Busta
#71ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
34 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Molcan A.
6-3 1-6 7-6
Carreno Busta P.
Molcan A.
61772
Carreno Busta P.
36651

Alex Molcan defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-3 1-6 7-6 in the Hamburg round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #71, defending the title.

Key context

  • Match story: Alex Molcan closed it out in three sets, 6–3 1–6 7–6.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Molcan A.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Molcan A.

Serve advantage — Carreno Busta P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Molcan A.Carreno Busta P.
1st serve in·Even
64%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
40%
39%
Break points saved·Even
58%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.9
3.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (195 vs 183). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Molcan A.Carreno Busta P.
Clutch Rating·Even
79
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
97
Break points won·Even
61
61
Deciding sets·Slight edge
91
80
Tiebreaks·Even
91
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Molcan A.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Carreno Busta P.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Clay Elo 1712
Surface ELO
5.2+55 Clay Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 1742
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1801
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
6.1
Surface form
5.1
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
6.1
3-set count
7.0
4.0
Prev. match
6.0
3.0
Surface transition
Context
6.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Molcan A.Carreno Busta P.
Freshness·Even
89
89

Molcan A.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 42%
Final
Musetti L.
Alcaraz C.[1]
6-46-766-4
Semi-finals
Alcaraz C.[1]
Molcan A.
7-626-1
Musetti L.
Cerundolo F.
6-37-63
Quarter-finals
Molcan A.
Coric B.
7-672-0
Alcaraz C.[1]
Khachanov K.[7]
6-06-2
Musetti L.
Davidovich Fokina A.
6-46-3
Cerundolo F.
Karatsev A.
6-34-67-64
R16
Alcaraz C.[1]
Krajinovic F.
7-646-3
Khachanov K.[7]
Fognini F.
6-37-5
Molcan A.
Carreno Busta P.[4]
6-31-67-65
Coric B.
Griekspoor T.
6-36-4
Musetti L.
Ruusuvuori E.
6-47-5
Karatsev A.
Galan D.
3-66-36-4
Cerundolo F.
Rublev A.[2]
6-46-2
Davidovich Fokina A.
Kovalik J.
6-26-2
R32
Krajinovic F.
Baez S.
6-14-67-66
Fognini F.
Bedene A.
6-33-67-65
Khachanov K.[7]
Struff J.
3-66-37-62
Carreno Busta P.[4]
Nardi L.
6-26-1
Molcan A.
Topo M.
7-56-3
Coric B.
Djere L.
1-67-646-3
Griekspoor T.
Rune H.[8]
7-687-5
Davidovich Fokina A.
Van De Zandschulp B.[5]
6-46-4
Kovalik J.
Rehberg M.
3-67-56-1
Musetti L.
Lajovic D.
6-747-646-3
Karatsev A.
Basilashvili N.[6]
6-46-0
Galan D.
Coria F.
7-646-4
Cerundolo F.
Altmaier D.
2-66-46-2
Ruusuvuori E.
Schwartzman D.[3]
7-56-4
Rublev A.[2]
Berankis R.
6-36-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
Kuhn N.
3-66-17-63