Reilly Opelka vs Brandon NakashimaSydney Quarter-final

Sydney · ATP · Quarter-final
#131ATP
1749ELO
1734Hard ELO
$325kYTD
$6.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 211 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 10 January 2022
hard
#32ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Opelka R.
7-6 6-2
Nakashima B.
Opelka R.
7762
Nakashima B.
6420

Reilly Opelka defeated Brandon Nakashima 7-6 6-2 in the Sydney quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Brandon Nakashima came in ranked #32, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Reilly Opelka claimed a first win over Brandon Nakashima in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Reilly Opelka closed it out in two sets, 7–6 6–2.

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-30WimbledonR64grassBrandon Nakashima7-5 6-2 6-7(6) 6-3
2025-02-10Delray BeachR16hardBrandon Nakashima3-6 7-5 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Opelka R.serving94% hold

wins 74% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving97% hold

wins 78% of points on serve vs Opelka R.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Opelka R.Nakashima B.
86
Serve
61
0
Return
23

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
79%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
54%
Service points won·Even
70%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
29%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
72%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
16.8
8.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.4
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (127 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
63
56
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Clear edge
1
13
Deciding sets·Clear edge
88
64
Tiebreaks·Even
93
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
4.6Hard Elo 1734
Surface ELO
5.4+54 Hard Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1749
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1839
5.0
H2H
5.0
2.5
Surface form
6.5
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.4
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
6.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
88

Nakashima B.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast