Hugo Gaston vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Paris Masters Round of 32

Paris Masters · ATP · Round of 32
Hugo Gaston
FRA
Hugo Gaston
#107ATP
1622ELO
1628Hard ELO
$355kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 1 November 2021
hard
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP12
Pablo Carreno Busta
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Gaston H.
6-7 6-4 7-5
Carreno Busta P.
Gaston H.
63672
Carreno Busta P.
77451

Hugo Gaston defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-7 6-4 7-5 in the Paris Masters round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's quarter-final. Hugo Gaston claimed a first win over Pablo Carreno Busta in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2020-11-02Paris MastersR64hardPablo Carreno Busta6-3 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Gaston H.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Gaston H.

Serve advantage — Carreno Busta P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Gaston H.Carreno Busta P.
—
Serve
21
—
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Gaston H.Carreno Busta P.
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
53%
Service points won·Even
60%
64%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Even
59%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.9
3.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 197). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Gaston H.Carreno Busta P.
Clutch Rating·Even
74
78
Break points saved·Slight edge
91
97
Break points won·Even
57
61
Deciding sets·Even
78
80
Tiebreaks·Even
93
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gaston H.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Carreno Busta P.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 1628
Surface ELO
6.0+116 Hard Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1801
0.0
H2H
10.0
4.9
Surface form
5.6
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.8
Minutes 14d
8.5
7.0
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
6.0
6.2
Country comfort
5.7
Context
6.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Gaston H.Carreno Busta P.
Freshness·Dominant
44
92

Gaston H.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 128 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
12°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 71%
Final
Djokovic N.[1]
Medvedev D.[2]
4-66-36-3
Semi-finals
Medvedev D.[2]
Zverev A.[4]
6-26-2
Djokovic N.[1]
Hurkacz H.[7]
3-66-07-65
Quarter-finals
Medvedev D.[2]
Gaston H.
7-676-4
Hurkacz H.[7]
Duckworth J.
6-26-747-5
Djokovic N.[1]
Fritz T.
6-46-3
Zverev A.[4]
Ruud C.[6]
7-56-4
R16
Djokovic N.[1]
Monfils G.[15]
W/O
Medvedev D.[2]
Korda S.
4-66-16-3
Gaston H.
Alcaraz C.
6-47-5
Zverev A.[4]
Dimitrov G.[16]
7-646-736-3
Hurkacz H.[7]
Koepfer D.
4-67-56-2
Fritz T.
Norrie C.[10]
6-37-63
Ruud C.[6]
Giron M.
6-26-1
Duckworth J.
Popyrin A.
7-666-4
R32
Giron M.
Schwartzman D.[11]
7-627-64
Koepfer D.
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
6-37-5
Popyrin A.
Tsitsipas S.[3]
4-2
Medvedev D.[2]
Ivashka I.
7-56-4
Korda S.
Cilic M.
6-26-4
Gaston H.
Carreno Busta P.[12]
6-736-47-5
Alcaraz C.
Sinner J.[8]
7-617-5
Zverev A.[4]
Lajovic D.
6-37-65
Dimitrov G.[16]
Khachanov K.
4-66-26-0
Ruud C.[6]
Bublik A.
6-46-0
Hurkacz H.[7]
Paul T.
7-57-64
Duckworth J.
Musetti L.
6-33-66-3
Fritz T.
Rublev A.[5]
7-57-62
Monfils G.[15]
Mannarino A.
2-67-646-2
Djokovic N.[1]
Fucsovics M.
6-24-66-3
Norrie C.[10]
Opelka R.
6-36-4
R64
Cilic M.
Davidovich Fokina A.
6-36-4
Ivashka I.
Ramos A.
6-37-62
Korda S.
Karatsev A.[13]
6-26-797-65
Carreno Busta P.[12]
Paire B.
6-36-4
Gaston H.
Rinderknech A.
4-66-46-3
Alcaraz C.
Herbert P.
6-747-627-5
Lajovic D.
Mcdonald M.
6-36-4
Khachanov K.
Ymer M.
6-47-5
Schwartzman D.[11]
Millman J.
7-625-76-2
Giron M.
Tiafoe F.
6-756-46-3
Bublik A.
Evans D.
2-67-57-5
Paul T.
Struff J.
6-36-4
Koepfer D.
Murray A.
6-45-77-69
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
Mager G.
4-66-46-1
Duckworth J.
Bautista Agut R.[14]
6-45-77-64
Musetti L.
Djere L.
4-67-656-4
Popyrin A.
De Minaur A.
6-06-3
Fritz T.
Sonego L.
3-66-26-3
Monfils G.[15]
Kecmanovic M.
4-67-56-3
Mannarino A.
Basilashvili N.
6-26-4
Fucsovics M.
Fognini F.
6-16-767-65
Dimitrov G.[16]
Gasquet R.
6-14-66-2
Opelka R.
Krajinovic F.
6-37-64
Norrie C.[10]
Delbonis F.
6-26-1