Aslan Karatsev vs Marin CilicMoscow Final

Moscow · ATP · Final
#1285ATP
32 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 18 October 2021
hard
#88ATP
1800ELO
1762Hard ELO
$776kYTD
$33MCAREER
37 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLLWL
Karatsev A.
6-2 6-4
Cilic M.
Karatsev A.
662
Cilic M.
240

Aslan Karatsev defeated Marin Cilic 6-2 6-4 in the Moscow final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Marin Cilic came in ranked #88, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Aslan Karatsev claimed a first win over Marin Cilic in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-08-16Cincinnati MastersR64hardMarin Cilic7-5 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Karatsev A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Cilic M.

Cilic M.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Karatsev A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Karatsev A.Cilic M.
Serve
57
Return
10

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.8
10.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.3
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 191). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
43
76
Break points saved·Slight edge
94
99
Break points won·Even
39
41
Deciding sets·Dominant
37
94
Tiebreaks·Dominant
41
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Extended break: 56 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.1
Surface form
4.4
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.7
Minutes 14d
9.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
98

Cilic M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast