Juan Pablo Varillas vs Francisco CerundoloSantiago 1 CH Semi-final

Santiago 1 CH · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#279ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 4 October 2021
clay
#22ATP
1931ELO
1868Clay ELO
$1.9MYTD
$11MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWL
Varillas J.
6-3 6-7 6-3
Cerundolo F.
Varillas J.
66862
Cerundolo F.
371031

Juan Pablo Varillas defeated Francisco Cerundolo 6-3 6-7 6-3 in the Santiago 1 CH semi-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Francisco Cerundolo came in ranked #22, leading the head-to-head 1–0, but Juan Pablo Varillas had been the form player, winning 3 of their last 4 on clay. Juan Pablo Varillas claimed a first win over Francisco Cerundolo in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-05-22LyonR16clayFrancisco Cerundolo6-2 0-0 RET

Serve vs return

This season
Varillas J.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Cerundolo F.

Cerundolo F.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Varillas J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Varillas J.Cerundolo F.
Serve
26
Return
99

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
62%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Even
59%
62%
Aces / match·Even
3.8
3.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
55
88
Break points saved·Clear edge
80
98
Break points won·Dominant
43
86
Deciding sets·Dominant
63
94
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
72
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
3.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
8.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.0Clay Elo 1431
Surface ELO
10.0+437 Clay Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1440
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 1931
0.0
H2H
10.0
7.6
Surface form
7.1
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3.9
Minutes 14d
9.2
7.0
3-set count
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
62
98

Varillas J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 84 games (7d) · Cerundolo F.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast