Lorenzo Giustino vs Matteo ArnaldiBucharest CH Round of 16

Bucharest CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#196ATP
1420ELO
1355Clay ELO
34 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 20 September 2021
clay
#34ATP
1830ELO
1830Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Giustino L.
2-6 7-5 6-4
Arnaldi M.
Giustino L.
2762
Arnaldi M.
6541

Lorenzo Giustino defeated Matteo Arnaldi 2-6 7-5 6-4 in the Bucharest CH round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #34.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Giustino L.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Giustino L.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
51%
Service points won·Even
59%
62%
Return points won·Even
40%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.2
5.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.1
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
2
78
Break points saved·Dominant
41
97
Break points won·Dominant
12
51
Deciding sets·Dominant
12
86
Tiebreaks·Dominant
26
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 42 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
0.7Clay Elo 1355
Surface ELO
9.3+476 Clay Elo edge
1.5Overall Elo 1420
ELO gap
8.6Overall Elo 1830
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
2.9
Surface form
3.0
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
8.5
Minutes 14d
9.0
Prev. match
6.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
51
97

Giustino L.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 120 games (7d) · Arnaldi M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast