Ilya Ivashka vs Pablo Carreno BustaWinston-Salem Quarter-final

Winston-Salem · ATP · Quarter-final
#554ATP
1538ELO
1509Hard ELO
32 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 23 August 2021
hard
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Ivashka I.
7-6 6-3
Carreno Busta P.
Ivashka I.
7762
Carreno Busta P.
6230

Ilya Ivashka defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 7-6 6-3 in the Winston-Salem quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Ilya Ivashka claimed a first win over Pablo Carreno Busta in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Ilya Ivashka closed it out in two sets, 7–6 6–3.

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2019-01-14Australian OpenR64hardPablo Carreno Busta6-2 6-3 7-6(7)
2016-08-29US OpenR128hardPablo Carreno Busta6-0 7-5 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Ivashka I.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Ivashka I.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Ivashka I.Carreno Busta P.
Serve
21
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Even
60%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.3
3.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (175 vs 197). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
53
78
Break points saved·Even
93
97
Break points won·Clear edge
41
61
Deciding sets·Slight edge
74
80
Tiebreaks·Dominant
15
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.3Hard Elo 1509
Surface ELO
7.7+235 Hard Elo edge
2.2Overall Elo 1538
ELO gap
7.8Overall Elo 1801
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.9
Surface form
7.2
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
7.3
7.0
3-set count
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
78
94

Ivashka I.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast