Pablo Carreno Busta vs Novak Djokovic — Tokyo Olympics Bronze Final

Tokyo Olympics · ATP · Bronze Final
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP6
Pablo Carreno Busta
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 24 July 2021
hard
Novak Djokovic
SRB1
Novak Djokovic
#8ATP
2059ELO
2022Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$193MCAREER
39 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWL
Carreno Busta P.
6-4 6-7 6-3
Djokovic N.
Carreno Busta P.
66662
Djokovic N.
47831

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Novak Djokovic 6-4 6-7 6-3 in the Tokyo Olympics bronze final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Novak Djokovic came in ranked #8, leading the head-to-head 4–0, but Pablo Carreno Busta had arrived on a 4-match winning run. Pablo Carreno Busta claimed a first win over Novak Djokovic in five meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

0–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2020-09-28Roland GarrosQFclayNovak Djokovic4-6 6-2 6-3 6-4
2019-08-12Cincinnati MastersR16hardNovak Djokovic6-3 6-4
2017-04-17Monte Carlo MastersR16clayNovak Djokovic6-2 4-6 6-4
2014-04-13Monte Carlo MastersR16clayNovak Djokovic6-0 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Djokovic N.

Djokovic N.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Serve advantage — Djokovic N.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Djokovic N.
21
Serve
68
44
Return
62

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Carreno Busta P.Djokovic N.
1st serve in·Even
66%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
56%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
70%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Even
61%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.6
7.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (197 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Carreno Busta P.Djokovic N.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
99
Break points saved·Even
97
100
Break points won·Dominant
61
99
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
100
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
95
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Carreno Busta P.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Djokovic N.
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 26 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
1.1Hard Elo 1744
Surface ELO
8.9+278 Hard Elo edge
1.0Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
9.0Overall Elo 2059
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.7
Surface form
8.8
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
10.018-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.1
Minutes 14d
8.0
Prev. match
4.0
6.0
Surface transition
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Carreno Busta P.Djokovic N.
Freshness·Dominant
90
49

Carreno Busta P.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Djokovic N.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 127 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Draw

Bronze
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Djokovic N.[1]
6-46-766-3
Final
Zverev A.[4]
Khachanov K.[12]
6-36-1
Semi-finals
Khachanov K.[12]
Carreno Busta P.[6]
6-36-3
Zverev A.[4]
Djokovic N.[1]
1-66-36-1
Quarter-finals
Khachanov K.[12]
Humbert U.[14]
7-644-66-3
Zverev A.[4]
Chardy J.
6-46-1
Djokovic N.[1]
Nishikori K.
6-26-0
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Medvedev D.[2]
6-27-65
R16
Khachanov K.[12]
Schwartzman D.[8]
6-12-66-1
Chardy J.
Broady L.
7-634-66-1
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Koepfer D.
7-676-3
Zverev A.[4]
Basilashvili N.
6-47-65
Humbert U.[14]
Tsitsipas S.[3]
2-67-646-2
Medvedev D.[2]
Fognini F.[15]
6-23-66-2
Djokovic N.[1]
Davidovich Fokina A.[16]
6-36-1
Nishikori K.
Ivashka I.
7-676-0
R32
Davidovich Fokina A.[16]
Millman J.
6-46-746-3
Schwartzman D.[8]
Machac T.
6-47-5
Broady L.
Hurkacz H.[7]
7-53-66-3
Nishikori K.
Giron M.
7-653-66-1
Koepfer D.
Purcell M.
6-36-0
Ivashka I.
Kukushkin M.
6-746-36-3
Fognini F.[15]
Gerasimov E.
6-47-64
Humbert U.[14]
Kecmanovic M.
4-67-657-5
Basilashvili N.
Sonego L.[13]
6-43-66-4
Khachanov K.[12]
Duckworth J.
7-56-1
Chardy J.
Karatsev A.[11]
7-54-66-3
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Cilic M.
5-76-46-4
Zverev A.[4]
Galan D.
6-26-2
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Tiafoe F.
6-36-4
Medvedev D.[2]
Nagal S.
6-26-1
Djokovic N.[1]
Struff J.
6-46-3
R64
Broady L.
Cerundolo F.
7-56-746-2
Medvedev D.[2]
Bublik A.
6-47-68
Djokovic N.[1]
Dellien H.
6-26-2
Millman J.
Musetti L.
6-36-4
Tiafoe F.
Kwon S.
6-36-2
Struff J.
Monteiro T.
6-36-4
Nagal S.
Istomin D.
6-46-766-4
Gerasimov E.
Simon G.
4-66-36-4
Machac T.
Sousa J.
6-756-46-4
Kukushkin M.
Coria F.
7-647-5
Galan D.
Safwat M.
7-56-1
Koepfer D.
Bagnis F.
3-66-37-5
Kecmanovic M.
Majchrzak K.
6-46-2
Duckworth J.
Klein L.
5-76-37-64
Chardy J.
Barrios Vera T.
6-17-64
Basilashvili N.
Carballes Baena R.
6-36-2
Fognini F.[15]
Sugita Y.
6-46-3
Humbert U.[14]
Andujar P.
7-636-1
Sonego L.[13]
Daniel T.
4-67-667-63
Khachanov K.[12]
Nishioka Y.
3-66-16-2
Karatsev A.[11]
Paul T.
6-36-2
Ivashka I.
Monfils G.[10]
6-44-67-5
Purcell M.
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
6-47-62
Schwartzman D.[8]
Varillas J.
7-56-4
Hurkacz H.[7]
Saville L.
6-26-4
Nishikori K.
Rublev A.[5]
6-36-4
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Kohlschreiber P.
6-33-66-3
Giron M.
Gombos N.
7-643-66-2
Cilic M.
Menezes J.
6-757-57-67
Zverev A.[4]
Lu Y.
6-16-3
Davidovich Fokina A.[16]
Sousa P.
6-36-0
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Sandgren T.
7-56-2