Gastao Elias vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Oeiras 4 CH Quarter-final

Oeiras 4 CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
Gastao Elias
POR
Gastao Elias
#728ATP
1447ELO
1425Clay ELO
35 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLLLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 24 May 2021
clay
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ARG
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
#58ATP
1759ELO
1741Clay ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLW
Elias G.
6-7 6-3 6-0
Ugo Carabelli C.
Elias G.
60662
Ugo Carabelli C.
77301

Gastao Elias defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli 6-7 6-3 6-0 in the Oeiras 4 CH quarter-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Camilo Ugo Carabelli came in ranked #58.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Elias G.serving63% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Ugo Carabelli C.

Ugo Carabelli C.serving66% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Elias G.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Elias G.Ugo Carabelli C.
—
Serve
24
—
Return
28

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Elias G.Ugo Carabelli C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
49%
Service points won·Even
60%
60%
Return points won·Even
40%
41%
Break points saved·Even
58%
60%
Aces / match·Even
3.1
2.7
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Elias G.Ugo Carabelli C.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
37
78
Break points saved·Dominant
57
90
Break points won·Dominant
24
62
Deciding sets·Slight edge
86
96
Tiebreaks·Dominant
7
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Elias G.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Ugo Carabelli C.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
1.0Clay Elo 1425
Surface ELO
9.0+316 Clay Elo edge
1.1Overall Elo 1447
ELO gap
8.9Overall Elo 1759
0.0No prior meetings
H2H
10.0
4.3
Surface form
5.2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.9
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Elias G.Ugo Carabelli C.
Freshness·
—
100

Ugo Carabelli C.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Final
Elias G.
Rune H.
5-76-46-4
Semi-finals
Rune H.
Skatov T.
6-23-66-2
Elias G.
Borges N.
4-67-50-0
Quarter-finals
Skatov T.
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
7-645-76-1
Rune H.
Gimeno Valero C.[6]
6-26-4
Borges N.
Jianu F.
6-46-4
Elias G.
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-706-36-0
R16
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Wu T.[2]
6-27-62
Skatov T.
Oliveira G.
6-36-1
Gimeno Valero C.[6]
Galovic V.
6-46-2
Borges N.
Yevseyev D.
6-726-46-2
Ugo Carabelli C.
Bonadio R.[8]
4-67-56-4
Elias G.
Araujo P.
7-56-0
Jianu F.
Tseng C.[4]
6-33-66-1
Rune H.
Lenz J.[3]
5-76-46-3
R32
Wu T.[2]
Cacao T.
6-16-1
Sanchez Izquierdo N.
Blancaneaux G.
6-36-2
Skatov T.
Sijsling I.
2-66-27-64
Oliveira G.
Cachin P.[7]
6-45-77-61
Lenz J.[3]
Denolly C.
6-46-0
Rune H.
Van Rijthoven T.
6-36-4
Gimeno Valero C.[6]
Sachko V.
6-26-1
Borges N.
Quiroz R.[5]
6-36-0
Yevseyev D.
Serdarusic N.
6-47-5
Jianu F.
Haerteis J.
6-36-0
Tseng C.[4]
Ortega Olmedo R.
6-46-2
Bonadio R.[8]
Forejtek J.
7-643-66-0
Ugo Carabelli C.
De Jong J.
6-46-2
Araujo P.
Bourgue M.[1]
6-26-2
Galovic V.
Ajdukovic D.
4-67-646-1
Elias G.
Faria L.
6-26-3