Nikolay Davydenko defeated Carlos Moya 3-6 6-2 6-2 in the Estoril semi-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Carlos Moya came in leading the head-to-head 5–1, defending last year's semi-final. Nikolay Davydenko narrowed the head-to-head to 5–2.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008-07-28 | Cincinnati Masters | R32 | hard | Carlos Moya | 7-6(8) 4-6 6-2 |
| 2006-05-29 | Roland Garros | R32 | clay | Nikolay Davydenko | 6-1 7-5 6-3 |
| 2004-04-19 | Monte Carlo Masters | QF | clay | Carlos Moya | 6-4 7-6(4) |
| 2003-04-21 | Barcelona | QF | clay | Carlos Moya | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2002-07-08 | Bastad | QF | clay | Carlos Moya | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2001-10-22 | Basel | QF | hard | Carlos Moya | 7-6(4) 7-6(3) |
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 178). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About